Sunday, June 13, 2010

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European bond markets – There are no expectations that the ECB will announce any policy changes on Thursday when it concludes the June monetary policy meeting. The press conference promises as always to be entertaining. Euribor futures mirror the path of U.S. counterparts with a minor steepening of the curve in evidence. The yield on the 10-year German bund fell to a record low in Tuesday’s trading while today the September futures contract has declined by 52 ticks to 129.27 where the implied yield has risen to 2.54%.

British gilt – The next big event for the U.K. will be the budget in two weeks time in which the government will detail plans to cut spending in an effort to reduce the debt burden already equivalent to 11.2% of GDP. Already the markets have warmed to the Conservative party’s approach who appear to understand the gravity of the situation. The gilt market pared gains made earlier in the week and yields backed up on Wednesday to 3.50% as investors watched a modest rebound in risk appetite, which included a surge in the value of the pound as euro-related pressure subsided.

Japanese bonds – The Nikkei fell over 1% in midweek trading and investors remained on the defensive boosting the bid for bonds. The June 10-year JGB future rose to 141.15 sending yields down by three pips to 1.19%.

Canadian bills – What’s good for the local dollar is possibly bad for Canada’s government bonds, which slid 42 ticks to 121.20 in Montreal. If a Reuters report suggesting a surge in Chinese exports is right, then commodity demand is alive and kicking. Moreover, so is global demand. That thought provoked a rally in the loonie today and saw dealers sell 90-day bills down by five basis points as the yield curve made a parallel upwards shift. The U.S. to Canada spread remains at its recent high of around 12 pips.

Australian bills – The Aussie bond market possibly reacted more to the news from Singapore from Mr. Shinohara than it did to a later story from Reuters suggesting a 50% surge in Chinese exports during May. Aussie yields possibly fell as further evidence emerged suggesting weakening business confidence while mortgage lending data also cooled suggesting that monetary policy was biting. The 10-year government bond slipped by three basis points to 5.29%.

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