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EUR/USD. Clear break of downtrend resistance

EUR/USD (1.2824) is up overnight on the back of Spain’s successful debt issuance, and spot has now clearly broken above the downtrend line off the December and April highs.

Technicals:

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Trend: Daily lower; Weekly higher.
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Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily overbought; Weekly oversold.
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Support / Resistance Levels: Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.25 (psychological), 1.2152 (Jun 29 low), 1.1877 (Jun7 low), 1.1827 (Mar’06 low), and 1.1640 (Nov’05 low). Resistance lies at 1.2835 (Jul15 high), 1.3094 (May10 high), 1.3692 (Apr12 high), 1.3818 (Mar17 high), 1.4026 (Feb3 high), 1.4194 (Jan25 high), 1.4579 (Jan13 high) and 1.4626 (Nov low).

Positioning:

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The CFTC, EUR, non-commercial, net position (-38K) moderated, in keeping with the price action through last Tuesday.
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The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) ticked higher along with spot. The reversal is still heavily skewed for EUR downside, but it lies in the middle of its six month range – suggesting two way price action.

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Implied Vol (3m) slipped overnight and is trending lower into the bottom ½ of its six-month range.

Cross-asset valuation: The significant correlations that EUR/USD has during the past 60 days are the 10yr yield spread (positive), the US10yr yield (positive) and the SPX (positive).

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What feeling do you get when you trade Forex?
I used to feel anxious and excited when I had a trade on. That’s a dangerous combination, but I think it is an unavoidable part of everyone’s learning curve. Now, I find it satisfying. I view my dollars-at-risk as my little employees out there working for me. As long as I’ve taken a well planned-out trade it feels right to have my capital at work.
In the larger scheme of things, I’ve learned a lot about myself through learning to trade currencies. Though it has been difficult at times (there’s no harder reality check than a depleting account) I’ve enjoyed that process of self discovery. I still enjoy it…I’m always learning.

So learning is one of the things that attracted you in Forex...
I had been studying the equities markets for years. At first it was kind of a personal challenge. I wasn’t raised in a household that spoke an economic language yet I was fascinated by the marketplace as the underpinnings of our government. Because I had become more and more involved in political issues that mattered to me, I found the Capitalistic Democracy model absolutely fascinating. I was at a fresh crossroads in my life when my kids were growing from toddlers to preschoolers and I realized that I had the chance to refocus my energy on learning something that would broaden me as they headed into longer and longer school days. As it often happens in life, that is about the same time that Forex became available to the retail trader. I was immediately hooked.

Indeed, from the mid-90's, internet opened the Forex market to many more people, including women, by making trading from home possible...

Definitely! I'm one of those women! I knew, when I decided to have children, that I wanted to be at home for them as long as it was possible. I quickly realized, however, that a lot of my self was getting lost in being their Mom. I needed something that was wholly mine and would still help the family. I also wanted something that was going to financially aid other passions I have in my life. Odd school schedules and the need to be available during the day hindered my options. I was really grateful to find trading. It was difficult at first and there were times I wondered if I was just wasting my time. Thank goodness my husband is so supportive and patient because it would have been a lot easier to go get a ‘real job’ that had an immediate, albeit capped, paycheck. I’m very happy I stuck with trading.